Updated Democratic Primary Contenders List:
(7/30/19 - after night one of Debate II)
Candidates Who Would Defeat Trump Handily
Updated Democratic Primary Contenders List:
(circa early June 2019)
Candidates Who Would Defeat Trump Handily
So, i like Joe Biden. I'm not going to vote for him in the Democratic Primary, but i would vote for him of course in a general election in 2020 as i did Hillary Clinton.
But please understand this, blue-leaning, honest-broker, patriotic Americans... Joe Biden will lose a general election run against Donald Trump. Well, not for sure, but he is is on my list of candidates who I'm not quite sure about, but will likely lose.
Mainstream media outlets all (from CNN to MSNBC to Fox News to Real Time to everywhere) continue to misunderstand presidential elections. The prevailing wisdom is that American voters care about where someone stands on the right/left political spectrum and the danger of nominating a candidate who is TOO LIBERAL.
The reality is that the big middle of the electorate is suffering, miserable and angry. Americans have elected disruptive change at every opportunity since the 1980s (at least as much disruptive change as they were permitted with the two major parties). "The middle" is not interested in the right/left spectrum. While the parties are, the middle is largely a-political. The middle just wants to raise their middle finger to the powers that be and wind up electing as much change as we are permitted.
For this reason, the biggest primary electoral blunder that Democrats can make is to nominate someone like Joe Biden - not because Joe is a bad guy, but because it's exactly the kind of "Stability Candidate" that the major parties have nominated since losing a first term since 1996.
Joe Biden is the latest in the line of Bob Dole, John Kerry, Mitt Romney future likely losers. A candidate whose primary characteristic for electoral consideration is their seriousness and appropriateness for office. These candidates scream stability (which is a strange thing to scream).
Since 1988, each American presidential election chose the change candidate. The reason every president has been re-elected since that time is not because we as Americans dislike firing people, it's because the major parties chose someone even more establishment than a sitting president with 4 years of experience under his belt:
One caveat is needed here, because we are living in such strange times. It may be that anyone who the democrats nominate will win. Despite the fact it was before "Smells Like Teen Spirit" was released that we last elected the more stable, normal, institutional choice for president, I do have some modicum of trust in the American electorate to not do this to us again. I was vocal amongst my peers that I thought Trump would win in 2016. I am not as concerned that he will win again in 2020. Thus, in my classification below of current 2020 Democratic Candidates for President the most dangerous category is "May Well Lose to Trump". The worst possible choice for the Dems in 2020 would be to once again nominate Hillary Clinton to run against Trump, and I would put her in that category, which means a fair chance to win, but "May Well Lose to Trump".
Original List (e.g. keeping myself honest)
Candidates Who Would Defeat Trump Handily
(7/30/19 - after night one of Debate II)
Candidates Who Would Defeat Trump Handily
- Cory Booker
- Pete Buttigieg
- Julián Castro
- Tulsi Gabbard
- Kamala Harris
- Amy Klobuchar
- Bernie Sanders
- Elizabeth Warren
- Andrew Yang
Candidates Who Very Likely Would Win Vs. Trump
- Bill de Blasio
- Beto O'Rourke
- Tim Ryan
- Marianne Williamson
I Don't Quite Know
- Mike Gravel
- Wayne Messam
- Seth Moulton
- Joe Sestak
May Well Lose to Trump
- Michael Bennett
- Joe Biden
- Steve Bullock
- John Delaney
- Kristen Gillibrand
JayJohn Hickenlooper- Jay Inslee
- Eric Swalwell
Updated Democratic Primary Contenders List:
(circa early June 2019)
Candidates Who Would Defeat Trump Handily
- Cory Booker
- Pete Buttigieg
- Julián Castro
- Tulsi Gabbard
- Kamala Harris
- Amy Klobuchar
- Tim Ryan
- Bernie Sanders
- Elizabeth Warren
- Andrew Yang
Candidates Who Very Likely Would Win Vs. Trump
- Michael Bennett
- Bill de Blasio
- Steve Bullock
- Mike Gravel
- Wayne Messam
- Seth Moulton
- Beto O'Rourke
I Don't Quite Know
- Joe Sestak
May Well Lose to Trump
- Joe Biden
- John Delaney
- Kristen Gillibrand
JayJohn Hickenlooper- Jay Inslee
- Eric Swalwell
- Marianne Williamson
So, i like Joe Biden. I'm not going to vote for him in the Democratic Primary, but i would vote for him of course in a general election in 2020 as i did Hillary Clinton.
But please understand this, blue-leaning, honest-broker, patriotic Americans... Joe Biden will lose a general election run against Donald Trump. Well, not for sure, but he is is on my list of candidates who I'm not quite sure about, but will likely lose.
Mainstream media outlets all (from CNN to MSNBC to Fox News to Real Time to everywhere) continue to misunderstand presidential elections. The prevailing wisdom is that American voters care about where someone stands on the right/left political spectrum and the danger of nominating a candidate who is TOO LIBERAL.
The reality is that the big middle of the electorate is suffering, miserable and angry. Americans have elected disruptive change at every opportunity since the 1980s (at least as much disruptive change as they were permitted with the two major parties). "The middle" is not interested in the right/left spectrum. While the parties are, the middle is largely a-political. The middle just wants to raise their middle finger to the powers that be and wind up electing as much change as we are permitted.For this reason, the biggest primary electoral blunder that Democrats can make is to nominate someone like Joe Biden - not because Joe is a bad guy, but because it's exactly the kind of "Stability Candidate" that the major parties have nominated since losing a first term since 1996.
Joe Biden is the latest in the line of Bob Dole, John Kerry, Mitt Romney future likely losers. A candidate whose primary characteristic for electoral consideration is their seriousness and appropriateness for office. These candidates scream stability (which is a strange thing to scream).
Since 1988, each American presidential election chose the change candidate. The reason every president has been re-elected since that time is not because we as Americans dislike firing people, it's because the major parties chose someone even more establishment than a sitting president with 4 years of experience under his belt:
- 1992 - Bill Clinton, a governor of a small southern state defeats the sitting president who was vice president for the 8 years before that.
- 1996 - Bill Clinton defeats Bob Dole, a senator from an older generation and a throwback gesture to 'bringing the grown-ups' back to power.
- 2000 - W "wins" an election over Al Gore, a sitting vice president of 8 years. Interesting to note, is that if McCain had won this primary, i think Gore wins in November.
- 2004 - W still seems new to this job 4 years in, and he defeats John Kerry, who looks and acts as if his chiseled jaw was formed from the stone of Mt. Rushmore.
- 2008 - Obama's hope and change defeats John McCain's trust us... except for Sarah Palin. She's just for fun.
- 2012 - Obama beats everyone's boss, Mitt Romney.
- 2016 - You didn't want another Bush?, how about another Clinton!
The mistake always made by both parties has been that America wants re-assuring in their candidates. The "trust us, we are experienced" hasn't won in more than 30 years...
One caveat is needed here, because we are living in such strange times. It may be that anyone who the democrats nominate will win. Despite the fact it was before "Smells Like Teen Spirit" was released that we last elected the more stable, normal, institutional choice for president, I do have some modicum of trust in the American electorate to not do this to us again. I was vocal amongst my peers that I thought Trump would win in 2016. I am not as concerned that he will win again in 2020. Thus, in my classification below of current 2020 Democratic Candidates for President the most dangerous category is "May Well Lose to Trump". The worst possible choice for the Dems in 2020 would be to once again nominate Hillary Clinton to run against Trump, and I would put her in that category, which means a fair chance to win, but "May Well Lose to Trump".
Original List (e.g. keeping myself honest)
Candidates Who Would Defeat Trump Handily
- Bernie Sanders
- Elizabeth Warren
- Cory Booker
- Pete Buttigieg
- Julián Castro
- Andrew Yang
Candidates Who Very Likely Would Win Vs. Trump
- Amy Klobuchar
- Beto O'Rourke
- Tim Ryan
- Tulsi Gabbard
- Wayne Messam
- Steve Bullock
- Mike Gravel
- Seth Moulton
I Don't Quite Know
- Jay Inslee
- Marianne Williamson
May Well Lose to Trump
- Joe Biden
- Kamala Harris
- Kristen Gillibrand
- Eric Swalwell
- Michael Bennett
- Bill de Blasio
JayJohn Hickenlooper- John Delaney
* * *
May 2019
I've had to update the list given the additional passage of time, so I think it makes sense to explain a bit of my thinking. I'll keep the list current (mostly moving people out of "I Don't Quite Know" to another category as I get a better sense of who they are).
My troublesome "May Well Lose to Trump" category are there for two reasons, the first is the one I outline above, namely that they seem to primarily be running as a "stability candidate" - and stability always loses the presidency in American (at least since 1988 and arguably since 1972).
Biden and Bennett fall into this category.
The other folks who may lose to Trump are 'coastal elites', candidates who are in large part defined by where they are from (these will mainly be New Yorkers and Californians). Even though de Blasio has true progressive cred, he may lose to Trump because he is TOO New York. The others on that list have 'not Trump' as their main selling point rather than an over-riding message to their campaign.
And then there's Hickenlooper, who I thought I had heard described as a "radical centrist", which I liked... just saw him on The Rachel Maddow Show this evening, and he is just a centrist centrist... and may well lose because of it.
* * *
June 2019
And John Delaney's performance at the California Democratic Convention solidifies him in the "May Well Lose" camp.
We should be able to finalize this list, and remove the "I Don't Know" category in a few weeks with the first debates (unless Jay Inslee doesn't make it and I still have never heard him talk...). Marianne Williamson seems confirmed to make the first debates, which will make things more interesting.
And then there's Hickenlooper, who I thought I had heard described as a "radical centrist", which I liked... just saw him on The Rachel Maddow Show this evening, and he is just a centrist centrist... and may well lose because of it.
* * *
June 2019
And John Delaney's performance at the California Democratic Convention solidifies him in the "May Well Lose" camp.
We should be able to finalize this list, and remove the "I Don't Know" category in a few weeks with the first debates (unless Jay Inslee doesn't make it and I still have never heard him talk...). Marianne Williamson seems confirmed to make the first debates, which will make things more interesting.
